Program for Simulating Yields of Crushing and Harvesting Operations
نویسنده
چکیده
A computerised model for analysing and predicting the cane crop for a given mill area is described. The starting point of the model is the age distribution of the present areas under cane. The seasonal operations are simulated month-by-month by harvesting these areas in step with the intended crushing rate. Past and expected future rainfalls are used in an empirical equation to calculate the applicable tons cane/hectare harvested yields, and re-growth of the harvested fields is likewise simulated. The season ends according to one of these limits; tons cane crushed, hectares harvested or season-end date. Two versions were developed: One for long term projections for the industry and one for more detailed short term runs on individual mills. These models have been used to: predict the effect of drought and plan for its consequences; analyse long term industry trends and project them into the future; and show the longer term effects of abnormalities during a season. This paper deals mainly with the long term industry version.
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